March 31, 2014
It is a major key to understanding the economic recovery questions and, therefore , possible decisions regarding the end of QE3 that can take Ben Bernanke , chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Trevor explains Greetham , head of multi-asset funds at Fidelity , currently the Case Shiller index of housing prices ” is recording the largest increases since 1996 by falling mortgage rates and financial sector more willing to lend .” The American manager believes in a report on the sector that can help the real estate three ways to strengthen the U.S. economy. The first and most important , being the most direct impact is residential investment. “The volume of promotions initiated is increasing and real residential investment in the United States. grew by 14.4% , the fastest pace since 1994 , “they explain .
The second way is through the ” wealth effect on consumption ,” purely psychological ” When house prices rise, consumers feel more wealthy, which tends to make them spend more ,” says a Fidelity. At the same time , provide the following calculation : for every dollar increase in net household wealth , U.S. consumers have historically spent between 3 and 5 cents more . The third contribution is through mortgage underwriting seconds . ” As demonstrated in the boom period , rising housing prices allow homeowners to borrow more against the value of their property . The available evidence suggests that the propensity to spend that money is usually high “note from the manager.
Bart Van Craeynest , chief economist at Petercam notes that despite the rise of the 1% have experienced in the last two months the rates of 30-year mortgages , ” confidence builders in the United States in July has reached its highest level since early 2006 , ” coinciding with highs in the sector. The expert says that ” following the historical pattern , the U.S. housing market seems set to add 3 percentage points of GDP over the next two years.” So far, the baseline estimate has been to Goldman Sachs , which has been estimated that this year will contribute 0.5% to GDP.
Good evidence of the influence of the real estate in the country’s economy is, after Bernanke announced that the Fed is ready to start phasing out the QE3 (which includes monthly purchases 40,000 million in mortgage bonds) , the market fell by 16 % from the highs of May, and then rebound by 6% , notes manager AXA Investment Managers Frédéric Tempel . “It’s unlike the rest of the world, where recent falls seem uniform and indiscriminate , U.S. We have seen some subsector differentiation, where the business models of long-term leases , such as retail single tenant (-6 %) and health care ( 3% ) were the most affected and , conversely , storage ( 1%) and apartments (2% ) had the best performance , since the length of the leases ranging from one month to one year, ” Tempel specified .
” The survey data on the housing market are an indicator that foreshadows well before the evolution of U.S. interest rates ” continues Trevor Greetham from Fidelity. “The continued recovery of the housing increases the likelihood that the U.S. quit first trap of debt and the Fed begins to raise rates in the next two years ,” he adds . “Right now the housing recovery can somehow deal with higher interest rates . Continued recpueración sector is a good sign for the overall picture in the U.S. , “says the chief economist at Petercam .
March 29, 2014
The pace of housing construction in the U.S. rose 5.9% in July and reached an annual rate of 896,000 units , reported the Commerce Department.
The pace of home construction in buildings with at least five homes increased 25.5 % while the works in single family homes decreased by 2.2 % , the report added .
In June, the pace of construction had reached 846,000 units per year and most analysts had estimated an annual rate of 915,000 units in July .
The housing construction data point to a sustained recovery in the housing market , and the beginning of work in the past month was 20.9 % above the same period in the previous year.
However, the construction sector is still far from the figures achieved during the housing boom that saw the construction of nearly 2.3 million homes in 2006.
Economists argue that the construction of about 1.7 million homes are needed each year to maintain the current inventory and meet the new demand .
In recent months some construction companies have reported difficulties in obtaining labor and supplies.
Building permits , which are an indicator of future activity , rose 2.7 % in July and reached an annual rate of 943,000 units , according to the government report .
Permits for the construction of buildings with at least five homes were up 13.5 % and permits for single-family homes fell by 1.9%.
March 22, 2014
For the month of December, pending home sales fell 8.7 % , a level lower than market expectations of a 0.3 % decline . Thus, in annual sales fell 8.8 percent.
In addition, the index of the last month of 2013 was at its lowest level since October 2011 , reaching the 92.4 points , while the index for November was revised to 101.2 units from the previous 101.7 .
According to the report , climate factor contributed greatly to the fall in pending home sales . In addition, housing prices had a higher income increase , affecting potential buyers .
Meanwhile, low inventory levels affected a greater choice of housing, although employment growth and demand are factors that would help a recovery index .
The NAR said that based on sales activity year-to- date and stable contracts signed in 2013 , the agency expects that home sales are 5.1 million homes this year, but inventory levels limit sales.
Finally , it is expected that the median existing homes increased 5.4 % over the next 12 months.
March 21, 2014
Gil Dezer , a developer of Miami, five years ago had 850 unsold condominiums and nearly $ 500 million in loans coming due at a time when credit markets were frozen and buyers disappeared .
Today, he is back on the market with what it considers a safe bet : a project of 132 units luxury car enthusiast called the Porsche Design Tower . The units of the 60-story building , with an elevator that transports cars directly to homes , ranging from $ 4.5 million up to 32.5 million for a four-story penthouse 600 thousand square meters.
While they are still building the foundation of the tower located on the seafront, 113 of the 132 units are already sold . All buyers gave 30 percent deposit cash funds that seminal Dezer counted to determine the level of interest generated by the project.
“We set rephrase things and point to a purchaser that is not as sensitive in economic terms ,” Dezer said , which started from the condo above $ 900,000 .
After the real estate market collapse left Miami with more than 25,000 unsold condos in 2008 , developers have returned , and this time differently.
At a time when credit is scarce and construction is the memory of speculators who disappeared when the mortgage financing dried up , construction projects funded with cash payment commitments by buyers of up to 60 percent of the price Cart .
The strategy has begun luxury towers reaching record prices and attract investors as the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Lloyd Blankfein , and Leon Black , founder of Apollo Global Management LLC.
Developers units equipped with additional features such as perimeter balconies overlooking the Atlantic Ocean , wine cellars cigar .
“People started asking for larger units and more services , and the price went up a lot ,” said William PD Pierce, an operator in Miami Beach Coldwell Banker.
Pierce last year found the buyer for a penthouse in Ian Schrager ‘s Residences in Miami Beach Edition. The contract for the triplex of 524 thousand square meters is 34 million, which makes it more expensive operation in Miami.
It is estimated that at least four units that exceed the market price. The most expensive penthouse , which has not been built in Mansions at Acqualina in Sunny Isles Beach- sells for $ 55 million , Pierce said.
There are 21 000 430 proposed or under construction around the level of prices in Miami -Dade County condos , from downtown Miami to the coastal route A1A from Sunny Isles to South Beach, according CraneSpotters.com , analyzing developments in the south Florida.
March 12, 2014
The two wealthy businessmen behind the scheme of the “free” cruise with a history of dishonest business practices . They refused our repeated requests for an interview.
Owner of Caribbean Cruise Line.
Son of James Lambert , founder of the company condo timeshare Berkeley Group, which owns Vacation Village. This is the company that organizes the meeting pressure sales for cruise passengers .
Holds significant financial interests in Vacation Village : he and James Verrillo also receive 25% of proceeds from sales of condos for customers they send there , according to a contract filed in court.
Has the Ramada Plaza where passengers are directed before and after the cruise.
Convicted of insider trading in 1999 with Verrillo .
In 2000 , settled for $ 1.5 million simultaneous action against him and Verrillo in 17 states for breach of trust in connection with packages ” free vacation .”
In 2002 , founded American Top Team, a mixed martial arts club with two brothers who had just been arrested for a vast conspiracy to import ecstasy .
In 2004, he and his wife have built one of the most expensive homes in Florida , estimated at 22 million , with 3 boat docks , 31 rooms and 13 bathrooms. His wife got home during the separation of property during their recent divorce.
Owner of Caribbean Cruise Line.
Convicted of insider trading in 1999.
A settled for $ 1.5 million simultaneous action against him and Daniel Lambert in 17 states for breach of trust in connection with packages ” free holiday ” in 2000.
Lives in a luxury residence close to the estimated 2.5 million sea .
Holds significant interests in the construction and real estate in Florida.
He and Daniel Lambert receive 25 % of the fruit of condo sales to customers that they have sent to Vacation Village.
Blamed by the Attorney General of Florida in 2008 because one of his former cruise companies had hidden charges fuel surcharge to its passengers.
February 28, 2014
February 26, 2014
With the upcoming introduction of new opportunities in Orlando and Miami, so we’ll focus on the interests of Florida for foreign investors.
Of the 327,000 transactions recorded in Florida for the year 2013, the value of this market is estimated at $ 74 billion . But it is important to distinguish between foreign investors representing 22,572 transactions totaling $ 4.6 billion , or 7% of trade and revenue.
According to the same study by the NAR (National Association of Realtors ) , two thirds of realtors recognize work with foreign investors against a national average of 27%.
It is the same way , important to take into account the fact that 80% of surveyed real estate agents face customers in a large majority considers Florida more affordable than their country of origin, many equivalents . In addition, 31% of respondents admit also experience an increase in foreign investors in Florida against 21 % on average nationally.
The trend is even more interesting when we know that foreign investors pay a median $ 216,000 to purchase in Florida against $ 146,000 in the rest of the country and $ 187,000 median acquisition for locals prices. In addition, 84% of transactions are made in cash!
Florida actually has many interests. Zones developed Ultra tourism , Miami and Orlando are both extremely active centers with the main areas of activity.
Tourism of ” Entertainment ” is a mainstay of the Florida economy. Orlando has more than 65,000 employees in various departments of parks. In addition to providing a mild and pleasant climate , Florida has still interesting investment opportunities that follow the 2006 crisis and big discounts we have seen .
In addition , the U.S. government , specifically federal , causes to maintain this momentum by adapting facilities and services provided to the growing demand . The Orlando airport will be expanded to increase the carrying capacity and the annual flow of travelers. The potential addition of another and another parking and terminal processes to automate certain tasks that Orlando Airport aims to become a focal point of Florida to better serve the surrounding towns . Direct lines from Paris are also considered some European companies.
Finally, argument size , the price of a gallon of gasoline is at its lowest this year in Florida.
February 25, 2014
Shopping Tours in Miami foreigners are not only large clothing and appliances, now also roam the city in search of condos and properties that , due to the mortgage crisis, rates are achieved by trinket . “These are perhaps unique opportunity to buy . The prices today are in Miami Beach who knows if it ever will be repeated , “he told AFP Michelle Iglesias, Agent Keyes , a renowned local firm of property … In South Beach, the most touristic area of Miami and most sought international investors , European and many Latin Americans , competing for cheaper condos range between 70,000 and 100,000 dollars, which is considered price will go up soon .
In other areas further north , less touristy , there are apartments ” For Sale” $ 50,000 .
Narrow operation who come from abroad should be a corporation, which is often done through the property itself at low cost, for the payment of annual taxes .
“Many buyers Brazilians , Venezuelans and Argentines are buying very cheap apartments in Miami Beach, but also units category , at a great price , Brickell Area ,” a signature Weichert agent , who declined to give his name.
“Latin Americans here will get prices that are much lower than other beach destinations in South America that have much less potential than Miami ,” he added .
The properties in the Miami area were down 47%, almost half the value it had in 2006 , at the peak of the so-called housing bubble , according to the Case- Shiller & Poor ` s Standard index of property prices .
Analysts warn that the market will not recover until the portfolio is reduced in the hands of banks , which are sold at a bargain price , and to improve the labor market in the United States.
“Unemployment is still high , people are afraid they can not afford housing costs and is very difficult to get credit ,” said Maureen Maitland , vice president of industry price index properties of Standard & Poor’s.
About 5,000 properties, including homes, condos and commercial real estate are held each month of the unpaid mortgage banks in the Miami area and around, according to the specialized site Condovultures Realty, which currently has a database of 236,000 foreclosed units in south Florida .
With a huge supply, prices have not fallen by more than were largely supported by strong foreign demand, according to the Realtors Association of Miami in its November report.
The organization notes that ” international buyers are pumping strength ” in the property market , which begins to show some signs of recovery , according to its president Oliver Ruiz.
Beatriz Lamanda , Venezuela , invested $ 80,000 in the purchase of two condominiums north of Miami Beach.
“I’d rather put the money in propieddades to leave on the bench. In a few years I will have a good difference because prices will certainly go up , “he told AFP.
Others opt for luxury real estate investments that can provide greater long-term profitability.
In the building, ” Icon” , a complex of three towers, designed by French Phillipe Stark, in the financial district of Brickell , the most modern city , apartments sold for $ 250,000 two years ago were $ 370,000 .
“We have sold 350 units in recent months . Most buyers are international in countries like Venezuela , Argentina and Brazil. Also in Colombia , Italy, Mexico and Canada , “he told AFP Alejandra Castillo, Fortune International .
In the same area condos are achieved for less than $ 100,000 left in the hands of banks , and up to two bedrooms and two bathrooms for $ 130,000.
Many of the towers that were built between 2007/2008 in downtown Miami , the apartments were bought with a payment of 20 % and a mortgage for the balance remembered .
But the recession and the resulting decline in the value of property ruined the business wanted to condominiums as an investment, and failed to pay , leaving the buildings in the hands of banks.
The disaster in the condo market ” was destined to happen because many promoters sold too many units to investors who would not live in them ,” said Lewis Goodkin of Goodkin Consulting firm based in Miami .
“That created a false demand drove up prices ,” which then fell sharply to a market that could not find buyers and can not find a flat depressed , he said.
Daniel Lemin came from France for work for three days , and contacted a local realtor to see apartments.
” It’s a great time to invest. And while I wait for prices to rise I have an apartment in Miami to use or rent , “he told AFP.
The rentals are located between 700 and 1,000 dollars, depending on location, for properties of a bedroom and a bathroom .
In some cases these amounts only sufficient to cover the annual common expenses and taxes, so the investment should be seen as a long term bet expected to improve the market , say industry experts.
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