Investing in new homes for more than five years ahead
July 28, 2014
The property will be an interesting asset in which to invest, once the price is set, and profitability has fallen bank deposits and government bonds. But only for investors who have a high net worth, more than five years ahead, and after a rigorous selection of the property. That is pointed to by Bankinter option.
The bank portion of the real estate market slowly begins a cycle change and moves towards a recovery that will be gradual. It provides an improvement in the economic environment over the next 18 months and detects moderation in price declines.
In his view, the upward trend in offices and shopping centers could be moved in the coming quarters as the residential market. “The numbers of home sales during the first months of the year confirm that we are in a turnaround has come not defined by a rapid increase in the demand, but by a slower recovery than in previous cycles,” according Bankinter.
There are two reasons why rule out housing demand figures range 2005-2007: declining population and lack of credit. According to the INE group of those between 25 and 49 years will be reduced by four million people between 2014 and 2023, to which the return to their countries of migrants will be added. As for the mortgage lending continues to fall and not be reactivated given the degree of bank indebtedness, late payment that is not reduced and that the measures announced by the ECB discarded credit for homebuyers.
“However, these obstacles will not prevent sales to rebound gradually to 330,000 in 2014 and 365,000 in 2015 Of this total, sales of new homes should be placed in a figure close to 65,000 in 2014 and 90,000 / 100,000 2015, “the report Bankinter.
The improvement is anticipated that the Spanish economy accumulates three consecutive quarters in expansion and GDP will grow by 1.3% this year and 2.1% in 2015 also expect a reduction in the unemployment rate to 22 % in late 2015 on the side of demand, home purchases by foreigners and non-residents account for 16%, driven largely by the remarkable economic growth of Germany and the UK and the advantages of climate and security Spanish. Asians are particularly interested to get into Europe via Spain leveraging residence visas for real estate investments of more than 500,000 euros.
Bankinter’s report cites CBRE whereby purchases of non-residential assets reached in the first half of the 3.226 million euros, representing an increase of 122% over 2013 financial institution that holds the interest in the tertiary will end up moving to residential short term.
2015 expected price spikes in some of the best locations and predicts an increase of up to 4% in 2015 Note that there are several studies that have identified market price increases in some districts of the big cities that have consumed the stock.
Bankinter seeks growth in the average price of housing within nine to twelve months. This is one of the data so that it is inclined to prefer investing in residential real estate assets in good locations and capital costs, in view of the current spike in rental yield and future price spike and thinking about who has a good assets to support him.
Instead, appreciate still uncertainties regarding assets Socimi being created, except for Merlin Properties, despite the appeal that may involve operating traded, they are to be distributed as dividends 80% who do not reinvest and are exempt corporate tax.
Grows 110% real estate investment
Socimi have facilitated growth in non-residential investment in Spain, 110% in annual terms during the first half of 2014; 2,300 million euros, according to BNP Paribas Real Estate.
Almost 40% of the investment has gone to the hotel followed business assets (29%) and offices (27%). 65% of the capital comes from China, Latin America or the Persian Gulf. And the total, 810 million euros have the national seal, which is a percentage increase of 150% in the amount deposited by Spanish investors. The losing weight is on the institutional investor, with only 18% share merado and descending.
Chapter vendors, financial institutions directly or through their estate is the most active.
Francisco Manchon, investment director at BNP Paribas Real Estate in Spain, 2015 expected an increase in sales and profitability, as well as investors diversify into secondary markets and real value added.